Pandemic Versus Financial Shocks: Comparison of Two Episodes on the Bitcoin Market

Abstract

With its rising popularity, the Bitcoin has also become increasingly independent from global financial markets. Recently, it has joined the class of alternative assets. We use the newly developed wavelet methodology to analyze daily data to compare the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 with the bear market episode at the end of 2018. In both cases, attention signals and a general panic are the main drivers of the Bitcoin fluctuations. We show that the Bitcoin’s dynamic is more complex than the dynamics of standard financial assets. The Bitcoin is, on the one hand, subject to pandemic shocks but also represents an important source of attention signals. On the other hand, because the Bitcoin additionally reacts on an emotional basis, it might react faster than other assets and thus creates a market signal itself. Moreover, we identify short cycles (of several days), which may possibly be related to demand factors, while long cycles (of several weeks) seem to mirror supply factors and might be related to Bitcoin mining in China. Finally, the analysis underlines the importance of continuous financial education and communication by the supervisory authorities about new, alternative financial assets.