Pandemic Times-A Helping Hand Against COVID

Abstract

Abstract: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that was first reported at the end of 2019 has impacted almost every aspect of life as we know it. This paper focuses on the incidence of the disease in India and Maharashtra—two of the most affected Landmasses. Using one simple machine learning algorithms, we model the daily and cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in India and Maharashtra during the early stage of the outbreak, and compute estimates for basic measures of the infectiousness of the disease including the basic reproduction number, growth rate, and doubling time. Estimates of the basic reproduction number were found to be larger than 1 in both cases, with values taking a huge leap every months as they double their mutation rate. Estimates were also computed for the more dynamic effective reproduction number, which showed that since the first cases were confirmed in the respective countries the severity has generally been decreasing. The predictive ability of the machine learning algorithms was found to give a better fit and simple estimates of the daily incidence for the affected places. The following website gives us a particular idea about the entire covid situation in Maharashtra.