Abstract
In The Netherlands a major part of preparedness planning for an epidemic or pandemic consists of maintaining essential public services, e.g., by the police, fire departments, army personnel, and healthcare workers. We provide estimates for peak demand for healthcare workers, factoring in healthcare worker absenteeism and using estimates from published epidemiologic models on the expected evolution of pandemic influenza in relation to the impact on peak surge capacity of healthcare facilities and intensive care units (ICUs). Using various published scenarios, we estimate their effect in increasing the availability of healthcare workers for duty during a pandemic. We show that even during the peak of the pandemic, all patients requiring hospital and ICU admission can be served, including those who have non-influenza-related conditions. For this rigorous task differentiation, clear hierarchical management, unambiguous communication, and discipline are essential and we recommend informing and training non-ICU healthcare workers for duties in the ICU.
Highlights
In the Netherlands a major part of preparedness planning for an epidemic or pandemic consists of maintaining essential public services, e.g., by the police, fire departments, army personnel, and healthcare workers
We modeled the available healthcare workers (HCWs) with a 30% attack rates (ARs), 25% and 50% intensive care units (ICUs) admission rate, and mean length of stay of 8 days and 15 days without antiviral medication (AVM) and 30% AR, 25% and 50% ICU admission rate, and mean length of stay of 8 days or 15 days with AVM
Because HCWs will become ill as the population does, the number of NEMS points available will be reduced as the pandemic period progresses; the lowest number will occur at 28 days, when the pandemic period is assumed to be at its highest point
Summary
In the Netherlands a major part of preparedness planning for an epidemic or pandemic consists of maintaining essential public services, e.g., by the police, fire departments, army personnel, and healthcare workers. We show that even during the peak of the pandemic, all patients requiring hospital and ICU admission can be served, including those who have non–influenza-related conditions For this rigorous task differentiation, clear hierarchical management, unambiguous communication, and discipline are essential and we recommend informing and training non-ICU healthcare workers for duties in the ICU. In the Netherlands a major part of preparedness planning for an epidemic or pandemic, e.g., avian influenza A, consists of maintaining essential services provided by the police, fire departments, army personnel, and healthcare workers (HCWs). We present a model to show the impact of the increased demand in HCWs with the increase in the number of hospi-
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