Paleoseismicity and seismic hazard in southern Patagonia (Argentina-Chile; 50°–55°S) and the role of the Magallanes-Fagnano transform fault

Abstract

Patagonia, including the island of Tierra del Fuego, lies in southernmost South America at the junction of the South American, Antarctic, and Scotia tectonic plates. Historical and instrumental records have documented several local earthquakes of damaging magnitude, posing a threat to the rapidly growing population of 300,000 and the expanding industrial and service infrastructure. Short and inaccurate instrumental records of local seismic events and a diffuse epicenter distribution not clearly related to the recognized seismogenic structures have hindered an adequate evaluation of the seismic hazard for this region. To improve this situation, a paleoseismological study was carried out on two gravelly strandplains on the Atlantic coast of Patagonia. Surveying combined ground-probing radar, vertical electric sounding, and seismic refraction. Coseismic normal faults buried beneath the strandplain bodies were revealed and related to the morphology of the strandplains. The faults have probable ages between 0.9 and 6.4 kyr BP and a recurrence rate of about 1 kyr. The more likely source for these structures is the Magallanes-Fagnano fault, a continental transform fault that crosses Tierra del Fuego. The distance of more than 300 km from the buried coseismic structures to the trace of the Magallanes-Fagnano fault argues for high-magnitude earthquake activity on this fault throughout the Holocene. Urban development on soft glacial and alluvial substrates increases the hazard.