Paleoearthquakes and Rupture Behavior of the Lenglongling Fault: Implications for Seismic Hazards of the Northeastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

AbstractThe Lenglongling fault (LLLF) is located along the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and forms a part of the Tianzhu seismic gap along the Qilian‐Haiyuan fault zone. Little is known about the recurrence of large earthquakes along the LLLF nor the associated seismic hazards of the gap. Here the six most recent surface rupturing paleoearthquakes of the LLLF are revealed by measurement of offset landforms, trench excavations, and radiocarbon dating. They are labeled E1–E6 from youngest to oldest, and their timings are constrained to the following time ranges: 636–498 to present, 2951–1155, 4016–3609, 5325–4476, 7284–6690, and 8483–7989 years BP, respectively. The LLLF displays evidence of fresh, recent surface rupture, and the trench sections reveal that the fault ruptured to the ground surface during the most recent event. Based on this fresh surface rupture and historical earthquake records, the latest event E1 was most likely the 1927 M8.0 Gulang earthquake. In conjunction with previous studies, Gulang earthquake might be a complicated event characterized by the combined rupture of both strike‐slip and thrust faults. The average recurrence interval of the six paleoearthquakes is 1643 ± 568 years, and the coefficient of variation is 0.34, indicating that the LLLF follows a quasiperiodic recurrence model. Based on this new understanding of the last event, the LLLF may not be a part of the Tianzhu seismic gap. However, an earthquake of up to MW7.6 could still rupture the gap sections composed of the Jinqianghe, Maomaoshan, and Laohushan faults.