Paleoclimate data assimilation: Its motivation, progress and prospects

Abstract

Reconstructing past climate is beneficial for researchers to understand the mechanism of past climate change, recognize the context of modern climate change and predict scenarios of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA), which was first introduced in 2000, is a promising approach and a significant issue in the context of past climate research. PDA has the same theoretical basis as the traditional data assimilation (DA) employed in the fields of atmosphere science, ocean science and land surface science. The main aim of PDA is to optimally estimate past climate states that are both consistent with the climate signal recorded in proxy and the dynamic understanding of the climate system through combining the physical laws and dynamic mechanisms of climate systems represented by climate models with climate signals recorded in proxies (e.g., tree rings, ice cores). After investigating the research status and latest advances of PDA abroad, in this paper, the background, concept and methodology of PAD are briefly introduced. Several special aspects and the development history of PAD are systematically summarized. The theoretical basis and typical cases associated with three frequently-used PAD methods (e.g., nudging, particle filter and ensemble square root filter) are analyzed and demonstrated. Finally, some underlying problems in current studies and key prospects in future research related to PDA are proposed to provide valuable thoughts on and a scientific basis for PDA research.