Pakistan's Triadic Politics and Chronic Political Instability: Is Democracy the Panacea?

Abstract

Introduction Pakistan is a vital country in the international system and its elusive stability is a concern for regional and international security. Its political situation continues to be fragile and neither the international community nor the Pakistani leadership has any substantial idea of how to stabilize it. Since its birth in 1947, a regular cycle of military coups and failed democratic governments has underpinned Pakistan’s chronic political instability. To make matters worse, the country has also drifted into extremism with serious risks to not only its own stability but also that of the wider region. Pakistan, under signifi cant pressure from the United States, has thus far adopted a largely military approach to restore stability. However, this has merely treated the symptoms rather than the root causes of the country’s chronic instability. This chapter suggests that the interplay between the three main political forms of government (FOG) – military dictatorship, democracy and Islamism – is a constant interdependent cycle lying at the core of Pakistan’s political instability. The chapter introduces a stability-instability model (SIM) comprising three competing forces which are compelled to co-opt each other and yet are simultaneously deeply destabilizing of one other to explain Pakistan’s instability. The chapter argues that this triadic and cyclical domestic politics must cease in order for Pakistan to experience long-term stability. However, this may only be possible when one of the three FOGs becomes selfreliant and does not have to align with the other two in order to stay in power.