Pakistan’s economy – 1999/2000 – 2007/2008: An objective appraisal

Abstract

This article is an attempt to present a dispassionate and objective analysis of the economic situation that attempts to try to sift facts from fiction and myths, separate analysis from emotions, present the strengths and weaknesses of the economy and draw conclusions based on evidence and analysis rather than popular rhetoric and half-truths. As there is a great deal of skepticism about the quality of the official data the sources used in this paper draw upon both internationally and nationally verified and authenticated numbers. At the international level, the IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, UNDP, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs data has been used while that of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Social Policy Development Centre, Institute of Public Policy, ABN Amro Bank, local research analysts in the private sector and other independent research reports have been used from domestic sources. This variety of data sources should offset the biases, if any. The period chosen for the review of the economy covers the entire eight years because until the whole context is taken into account the picture will remain incomplete or blurred. But this period is further sub-divided into three subperiods (i) 1999/2001-02 (ii) 2002-03 – 2006/07 and (iii) 2007/08. The distinctive features of these sub-periods were macro-economic stabilization, growth acceleration and economic regress respectively.