Pacific Storms Climatology Products (PSCP): Understanding Extreme Events

Abstract

E xtreme events: the f loods that displace us from our homes, the high waves that wash out coastal roads, or the toppling of trees and power poles from a passing storm. For locations around the Pacific Basin, where remote island chains sit perilously close to sea level and where rainfall is the primary source of water, questions arise concerning the return frequency and duration of such events, and whether or not they are getting more extreme. Understanding the long-term variability and change in coastal climate extremes has grown in public awareness given the potentially severe impacts related to sea-level rise coupled with coastal storms. To reduce vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena, decision makers in coastal communities need timely access to accurate and contextually relevant information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. To address this need, the Pacific Storms Climatology Products (PSCP) project—or Pacific Storms— was established under the direction of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Pacific Storms is focused on improving our understanding of patterns and trends in storm frequency and intensity—“storminess”—within the Pacific Basin. Pacific Storms is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three thematic areas: strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Theme-specif ic data integration and product development teams were formed to conduct analyses and create a broad suite of derived data products, which are publicly available online (www.pacificstormsclimatology.org). These teams included representatives from NCDC, as well as NOAA’s Center for Operational Products and Services (CO-OPS), Coastal Services Center (CSC), and National Weather Service (NWS), and the University of Hawaii, University of Alaska, University of Guam, and Oregon State University. Sources of information include NOAA’s Integrated Surface Hourly (ISH) mean sea-level pressure and wind speed data, the Global Historical Climate Network-Daily (GHCN-D) precipitation dataset, the National Water Level Observing Network (NWLON) tide gauge records, the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC) Joint Archive for Sea Level research quality dataset and Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)/Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) “fast delivery” sea level dataset, the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) wave buoy records, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Coastal Data Information (CDIP) buoy data, and other data sources. The data analysis and product development framework and guidelines outlined below are innovative in a number of ways. First, they focus on extreme events, and integrate data and products across a range of storm-related phenomena. Furthermore, they also paint a comprehensive picture of changes and variation in extreme-event magnitude and frequency for a mix of theme-specific parameters on seasonal, annual, and interannual time frames. The resulting extremes climatology datasets are unique, as are some of the specific products. Finally, success of the project is fundamentally tied to the collaborative efforts of the data integration and product development teams.