Pacific rim business cycle analysis: Synchronisation and volatility

Abstract

This paper examines sychronisation and volatility of the business cycles of Pacific Rim countries which are closely linked by trade. Close synchronisation is evident amongst groups of countries, but it is difficult to establish meaningful cycle synchronisation between countries outside these groups. For instance, the cycles of New Zealand and Australia are closely synchronised with the USA cycle rather than with Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, or with Japan. Average cycle volatility varies markedly across countries, from the lower volatility countries of Japan, USA and Australia, through to the high volatility economies of Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore. But cycle volatility has also changed markedly over time, and the pattern of change is typically similar between countries that can be grouped in terms of cycle synchronisation. For example, the pattern for New Zealand has resembled the paths evident for USA and Australia. Similarly, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan have experienced a relatively common pattern of change in volatility, which differs from that for USA, Australia and New Zealand.