Pacific Ocean forecasts

Abstract

A primitive equation Pacific Ocean model forced by wind stresses and heat fluxes is used to obtain uncoupled forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST), heat storage (upper 400 m), and surface currents. The forecasts are displayed in real-time on the web http://ecpc.ucsd.edu) and are compared against observations obtained from the Reynolds (SST) and Joint Environmental Data Analysis Center, JEDAC http://jedac.ucsd.edu), (0- to 400-m temperature) data sets. The resulting forecast skill, for both total and anomalous fields, are reasonably good given the simplicity of our methodology and the fact that feedback processes between ocean and atmosphere are absent. SST forecasts are equal and even superior to anomaly persistence forecasts in some regions during some seasons. Given this skill, which depends both on model performance and on quality and sampling density of the observations, we are beginning to develop various applications for these experimental forecasts.