Pacific Hurricane Landfalls on Mexico and SST.

Abstract

A statistical model of Northeast Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) is developed and used to estimate hurricane landfall rates along the coast of Mexico. Mean annual landfall rates for 1971-2014 are compared to mean rates for the extremely high Northeast Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) of 2015. Over the full coast, the mean rate and 5%-95% uncertainty for Saffir-Simpson category one and higher TCs (category-1+ TCs) is for 1971-2014 and for 2015, a difference that is not significant. However, the increase for the most intense landfalls, category-5 TCs, is significant: for 1971-2014 and for 2015. The SST impact on the category-5 TC landfall rate is largest on the northern Mexican coast. The increased landfall rates for category-5 TCs is consistent with independent analysis showing that SST has its greatest impact on the formation rates of the most intense Northeast Pacific tropical cyclones. Landfall rates on Hawaii ( for category-1+ TCs and for category-3+ TCs for 1971-2014) show increases in the best estimates for 2015 conditions, but the changes are insignificant according to our tests.