P.67 Development and evaluation of a time to event endpoint for clinical trials in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD)

Abstract

Event-driven clinical trials, commonly used in oncology, offer several benefits over continuous outcome measures: i) each patient is assessed individually, ii) after the event has occurred, patients can receive therapy without breaking the blind. This study aimed to develop a time-to-event outcome measure for the North Star Ambulatory Assessment (NSAA) corresponding to clinically meaningful disease progression in DMD. Three candidate definitions based on changes in NSAA were investigated: A) Loss of 3 NSAA total score points; B) Loss of 2 distinct NSAA items; C) Loss of 3 NSAA points or loss of 2 NSAA items. To evaluate these definitions, 619 DMD patients with expected decline in motor function (baseline rise from supine ≥5 seconds) were studied from 3 clinical trial placebo arms and 4 natural history studies. At baseline, mean age was 9.3 years (range: 6-18yrs), mean NSAA total score was 22 (range:12-34); 63% were receiving prednisone, 37% deflazacort, and 0.4% no steroids. For each definition, median time to progression was 11.0, 14.0 and 8.3 months, respectively, based on Kaplan-Meier analyses. As a measure of prognostic validity, a progression event during the first year of follow-up was associated with significantly shorter time to loss of ambulation, with hazard ratios of 2.5, 6.5 and 3.2, respectively (all p<0.05), based on landmark analyses. Stability of the progression definitions varied, with approximately 10%, 19% and 12%, respectively, regaining their baseline level of function within a year. Definition A exhibited a favorable combination of event rate, prognostic validity, and stability. A hypothetical, well-powered, randomized, event-driven trial based on endpoint A and enrolling 160 DMD patients over a period of 9 months would require an expected duration of 10, 14, or 25 months to detect treatment effects delaying progression by 13.0, 8.4 or 5.4 months, respectively. Thus, event-driven trials may be viable for drug development in ambulatory DMD.