Abstract
Abstract Background Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) affects up to 25% of patients with UC and is significantly associated with an increased risk of colectomy. Despite improvements in medical management, individual patient prognostication and risk stratification in ASUC remains clinically challenging. We explored clinical, biochemical, and endoscopic factors as potential predictors for colectomy in patients hospitalized with ASUC. Methods A retrospective analysis of patients with ASUC as defined by Truelove and Witts criteria admitted to the Mount Sinai Hospital between 2011 and 2020 was conducted. Patients with well-documented data on disease history, medication use, clinical symptoms, and laboratory results during admission for ASUC were included. Colectomy risk during hospitalization and within one year was assessed. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify clinical, biochemical, and endoscopic parameters associated with colectomy risk in patients with ASUC. Results Out of the 158 patients included, 34 (21.5%) underwent colectomy during hospital admission, and 41 (25.9%) within one year after admission. On multivariable analysis, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and disease duration, prior anti-TNF exposure (odds ratio [OR] 4.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.57-13.4, P=0.005) and the use of biologics (any type) at admission (OR 3.31, 95%CI: 1.14-9.63, P=0.028) were associated with an increased risk of 1-year colectomy. Conversely, the use of mesalamines at admission was associated with a decreased risk of 1-year colectomy (OR 0.31, 95%CI: [0.13-0.72], P=0.006). Furthermore, recent UC-related hospitalization (within one year of admission) (OR 2.72, 95%CI: 1.15-6.43, P=0.022) and increased number of bowel movements after 3 days of treatment (OR 1.18, 95%CI: 1.04-1.34, P=0.011) were associated with higher risk of 1-year colectomy. Biomarkers measured at admission including hemoglobin and albumin were associated with a decreased risk, while CRP was associated with an increased risk of urgent and 1-year colectomy. Patients with deep ulcerations observed at endoscopy tended to have an increased risk of urgent colectomy, although this was not statistically significant (univariable OR 3.36, P=0.081). Finally, treatment of ASUC with anti-TNF was strongly associated with a decreased risk of urgent (OR 0.30, 95%CI: 0.13-0.73, P=0.007) and 1-year colectomy (OR 0.31, 95%CI: 0.14-0.73, P=0.007). Conclusion In patients with ASUC, anti-TNF treatment is associated with a reduced risk of both urgent and 1-year colectomy. Conversely a history of anti-TNF exposure is linked to a higher risk of both urgent and 1-year colectomy. This data emphasizes the need for alternative therapies.
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