P6474Hidden in plain sight: diastolic blood pressure, resting heart rate and physical examination are independent predictors of mortality in chronic aortic regurgitation

Abstract

Abstract Background In patients with hemodynamically-significant chronic aortic valve regurgitation (AR), the prognostic significance of routinely-measured diastolic blood pressure (DBP), resting heart rate (RHR) and physical examination signs of heart failure (HF), is unknown. Purpose To investigate the association of DBP, RHR and HF signs, with all-cause mortality. Methods This retrospective cohort study included all consecutive patients with moderately-severe or severe AR within a tertiary-referral center from 2006–2017. Patients with ≥moderate aortic stenosis and those with ≥moderate mitral stenosis/regurgitation were excluded. Results Of 820 patients (age 59±17 years; 82% men) with DBP 64±13mmHg and RHR 64±12bpm, followed for 5.5±3.5 years, 104 died under medical management and 400 underwent aortic valve surgery (AVS). In multivariable analysis, DBP (adjusted-hazard ratio [HR] 0.82 [0.68–0.98] p=0.031, per 10mmHg increase), RHR (adjusted HR 1.2 [1.01–1.41] p=0.034 per 10bpm increase), and any HF signs (adjusted HR 1.66 [1.04–2.61] p=0.032) were associated with all-cause death independently of demographics, comorbidities, and guideline-derived surgical triggers. Mortality increased in a J-curve fashion for DBP starting at 70 mmHg and peaking at 55 mmHg (Fig A,C), and in a linear fashion for RHR starting at 60bpm (Fig B, D). The association persisted after additional adjustment for medications, presence of hypertension and time-dependent AVS. A clinical score combining DBP, RHR and any HF signs increased the mortality risk-discrimination of demographics and comorbidities from 74% to 79% (p=0.01), and from 79% to 82% after addition of surgical triggers (p=0.04). Figure. Risk of death by DBP and RHR Conclusions In patients with AR, routinely-measured vital signs and physical examination are strongly associated with all-cause mortality; lower DBP, higher RHR and any HF signs are independent predictors of mortality, and provide incremental mortality risk-discriminating value to baseline demographics, comorbidities and guideline-derived surgical triggers. These findings represent a clinical paradigm shift and have guideline implications.