P5661Validation of CHA2DS2-VA score (excluding female sex) in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients: a nationwide population-based study

Abstract

Abstract Background Sex category (Sc, ie, female sex) confers 1 point on CHA2DS2-VASc score. So, no woman with atrial fibrillation (AF) can have a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0. This study aimed to compare CHA2DS2-VA (excluding female sex) and CHA2DS2-VASc score in Korean AF patients. Methods Using the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, we analyzed the risk of ischemic stroke in non-valvular AF patients between 2013 and 2017. The predictive value of the CHA2DS2-VA and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for ischemic stroke was evaluated by c-statistic difference and net reclassification improvement (NRI). The propensity score matching method was used to balance covariates across male and female AF patients. Results A total of 182,133 patients with AF (49.2% women) were included to this study. The adjusted incidence rate (IR) of ischemic stroke was not significantly different between males and females (0.89%/y and 0.90%/y, respectively, p=0.411) in low-risk patients without risk factor. Also, no sex difference was found in high-risk patients with above 2 risk factors for ischemic stroke (4.46%/y for male and 4.49%/y for male, p=0.498). In c-statistic analysis for ischemic stroke, there was no significant difference between the CHA2DS2-VA and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (AUC 0.662 vs. 0.664, z=1.572, p=0.116). When compared with CHA2DS2-VASc score, CHA2DS2-VA score was not significantly inferior in net reclassification improvement (NRI 0.031, 95% CI 0.002–0.037, p=0.118) for ischemic stroke. C-statistics Conclusions In Korean AF patients, the CHA2DS2-VA score excluding female sex is a useful risk scoring system for ischemic stroke.