P5423Exercise oscillatory ventilation improves the performance of prognosis scores currently used for heart failure

Abstract

Abstract Background and aim Several prognostic risk scores are available for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), and are used, together with other criteria, to help decide the ideal timing for listing candidates for a heart transplant. The detection of an oscillatory ventilatory pattern (OVP) during cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) has been associated with more advanced HF and a worse prognosis, but was not considered in the development of all the current risk scores. We evaluated whether OVP adds significant prognostic information to four contemporary HF scores. Methods Single-centre retrospective cohort study of consecutive HFrEF patients undergoing CPET for functional and prognostic assessment from October 1996 till May 2018. The Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS), Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) and Metabolic Exercise Cardiac Kidney Index (MECKI) were obtained in each patient. Cox model was fit with time to death or urgent transplant (whichever came first within 2 years) as the dependent variable and OVP and respective HF score as the independent variables. We further assessed the added discriminative power by performing ROC curve comparisons. Results We studied 387 patients, median age 58 (IQR 49; 65) years, and 77% were male. The most common HFrEF aetiology was ischemic heart disease (54%). Median peak oxygen consumption was 15,7 mL/kg/min (IQR 12,8; 20,0). OVP was present in 150 (39%) patients. Over the 2-year follow-up period, 48 patients died, and 52 underwent heart transplantation (of which 25 were urgent). HFSS showed the weakest (c-statistic 0,625; 95% [CI] 0,54–0,71) and MECKI score the strongest (c-statistic 0,819; 95% [CI] 0,76–0,88) discriminatory ability. Contrasting with NTproBNP value, the presence of OVP predicted the study endpoint independently of the HF prognosis score used (see table). Adding the occurrence of OVP to the HFSS and the MAGGIC scores significantly improved their prognostic performance (see Table). Conclusion An OVP is a common finding in HFrEF patients undergoing CPET, and adds prognostic information to contemporary HF prognosis scores. Systematic evaluation of this easily available criterion may assist the decision on the appropriate timing for heart transplantation listing.