P5350Atrial fibrillation prediction using P wave signal-averaged ECG in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source

Abstract

Abstract Background Approximately 10–25% of ischemic strokes are of unknown origin. Determining their potential association with subclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF) is important for proper secondary prevention. We investigated whether SCAF can be predicted by assessing the atrial substrate with signal-averaged electrocardiography (SAECG). Methods Between April 2015 and February 2018, we recruited 125 consecutive patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) and 125 patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) patients as control. All participants underwent P wave SAECG at baseline and ESUS patients were followed up with ECG and Holter ECG, at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months after discharge, and every 12 months thereafter. Results In the ESUS group (69 males, 68.4±12.1 years), 32 (25.6%) patients were diagnosed with SCAF during follow-up. There were no significant differences between both groups in terms of P wave duration [PWD] (ESUS vs. AF, P=0.321). PWD demonstrated a significant predictive efficacy for SCAF detection during follow-up (C-index of standard PWD=0.657, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.552–0.761, P=0.008). Stroke recurrence occurred in 22 patients (17.6%) and was significantly associated with PWD but not SCAF (odds ratio 2.756, 95% CI 1.061–7.161, P=0.037). Conclusion PWD, an ECG biomarker associated with atrial substrate directly contributes to AF and ESUS, is useful for predicting SCAF. The potential for using this simple ECG biomarker for screening for SCAF amongst ESUS patients merits further exploration.