P3521Predicting 30-day mortality and 30-day re-hospitalization risks in patients with heart failure

Abstract

Abstract Background Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of hospitalization among persons aged ≥65 years. In the USA, nearly one-quarter of these patients are discharged to skilled nursing facilities (SNFs). These patients are typically older, and have greater mortality and re-hospitalization risks compared with those discharged home. Despite the importance of SNFs as a post-acute care setting for patients with HF, little is known about factors that predict short-term mortality and re-hospitalization in these high risk patients. Purpose To develop and validate separate predictive models for 30-day all-cause mortality and 30-day all-cause re-hospitalization among HF patients discharged from acute care hospitals to SNF. Methods Using a nationwide dataset including Medicare claims data cross-linked with Minimum Data Set 3.0 (2011–2013), we identified 77,670 hospitalized patients with HF discharged to 11,529 SNFs; we randomly split the patients into development (2/3 of the sample) and validation (1/3 of the sample) cohorts. Using data on patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, health service use, functional status, and facility-level factors, we developed separate prediction models for 30-day mortality and 30-day re-hospitalization using logistic regression models in the development cohort. Results In the development cohort, the median age of patients was 84 years, 39.6% were men, 83.4% were Caucasian whites. The median Charlson index was 4 and the median length of hospital stay was 6 days. Functional disabilities were prevalent: 80.0% had moderate-to-severe physical limitations and 35.9% moderate or severe cognitive impairment. After admission to SNF, 6.8% died and 24.2% were re-hospitalized within 30 days in the development cohort. Of those who died, 56.1% were re-hospitalized and 13.6% were discharged to home or self-care before their death. Of those who were re-hospitalized, 18.5% were discharged to home or self-care before their readmission. Of 48 potential predictors, 13 patient-level factors remained in the final model for 30-day mortality and 10 patient-level factors for re-hospitalization with good calibration. Among the selected predictors, developing symptoms of dyspnea, having physical limitations, depression severity, BMI, Charlson index, number of hospitalizations in past 6 months and length of hospital stay contributed most. The area under receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.71 for 30-day mortality and 0.63 for re-hospitalization in the validation cohort. Conclusions Among HF patients discharged to SNFs, our predictive model based on administrative data may be used to identify those at risk for death within 30 days, which could aid clinicians in improving care during this vulnerable period. Further work identifying factors for re-hospitalization remains needed. Acknowledgement/Funding None