P2.11-03 Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in a Community-Based Lung Cancer Screening Programme

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in populations eligible for lung cancer screening. The aim of this study was to determine whether a brief CV risk assessment, delivered as part of a community-based lung cancer screening programme, was effective in identifying individuals at high risk who might benefit from primary prevention. The Manchester Lung Screening Pilot consisted of annual low dose CT (LDCT) over 2 screening rounds, targeted at individuals in deprived areas at high risk of lung cancer (age 55-74 and 6-year risk ≥1.51%, using PLCOM2012 risk model). All participants of the second screening round were eligible to take part in the study. Ten-year CV risk was estimated using QRISK2 in participants without CVD and compared to age (±5 years) and sex matched Health Survey for England (HSE) controls; high risk was defined as QRISK2 score ≥10%. Coronary artery calcification (CAC) was assessed on LDCT scans and compared to QRISK2 score. Seventy-seven percent (n=920/1,194) of screening attendees were included in the analysis; mean age 65.6±5.4 and 50.4% female. QRISK2 and lung cancer risk (PLCOM2012) scores were correlated (r=0.26, p<0.001). Median QRISK2 score was 21.1% (IQR 14.9-29.6) in those without established CVD (77.6%, n=714/920), double that of HSE controls (10.3%, IQR 6.6-16.2; n=714) (p<0.001). QRISK2 score was significantly higher in those with CAC (p<0.001). Screening attendees were 10-fold more likely to be classified high risk (OR 10.2 [95% CI 7.3-14.0]). One third (33.7%, n=310/920) of all study participants were high risk but not receiving statin therapy for primary CVD prevention. Opportunistic CVD risk assessment within a lung cancer screening programme is feasible and is likely to identify a very large number of individuals suitable for primary prevention.