Abstract

In this paper, probability distribution functions are derived for the order statistics of various functionals of strong ground motion at a site. These functionals can be: Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI), peak ground acceleration (PGA), Fourier spectral amplitudes of acceleration, response spectrum amplitudes (spectral displacement, pseudo-spectral velocity and pseudo-spectral acceleration), and amplitudes of the peaks (local maxima and local minima) in the time historyof the response of SDOF and MDOF structures at the site. Three parameters of the response of a structure are considered: displacement, shear force and bending moment at each level (storey) of the structure. The earthquake sources contributing to the risk of ground motion at the site are a number of point, area or volume sources, each with defined frequency of occurence-magnitude relationship. The magnitudes of the possible events at these sources are discretized, and the occurrence of events of different magnitudes are assumed to be statistically independent. For each magnitude, it is assumed that the eartquakes occur in a Poissonian sequence or in a renewal process which is a generalization of the Poissonian. For these assumptions, the probability distribution functions are presented for the number of earthquakes, n, during which a given level of site or structural response is exceeded during the exposure time, and for the return period of the exceedances. For example, for single-degree- of-freedom: (SDOF) or multi-degree-of-freedom structures, (MDOF) n can be the number of earthquakes during which the response of a storey will exceed a given level at least m times(m = 1, 2, 3,…) during the exposure time. These probability distribution functions can be used to extend the concept of uniform probability functionals to more than one exceedance. A more important application is to generalize the uniform probability functionals method of site response (uniform probability Fourier or response spectra) to uniform probability envelopes of displacement, shears and bending moments of a given structure. The uniform probability envelopes can be for exceedance at least once during at least one earthquake, or, in general, for exceedance at least m times per earthquake (m = 1, 2,…) during at least n earthquakes. In other words, during at least n earthquakes at least m peaks in the response can be higher than the specified level. Such uniform probability envelopes can be used (1) to define new design guidelines for building codes based on cost-benefit analysis; (2) to construct more refined probability distribution functions for the damage and total economic losses caused by earthquakes; and (3) to develop planning and decision strategies on strengthening and retrofitting existing buildings.

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