Abstract

Abstract Background and purpose EuroSCORE (ES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk prediction models are routinely used to guide decision-making for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), however their accuracy remains limited, especially in very old and high-risk patients. New and updated scoring models have thus been developed to improve risk stratification. We performed a comparative evaluation of classical and new risk scoring models for prediction of 30d mortality in transcatheter aortic valve interventions. Methods and results A total of 1,569 patients undergoing transfemoral (TF, n=1.235) or transapical (TA, n=334) TAVR from 2009 to 2018 were included in a single-center all-comer analysis. Six risk scoring models (logES_I, ES_II, STS-PROM, FRANCE-2, OBSERVANT, GAV-2) were calculated for all patients and evaluated for prediction of 30d mortality in their model discrimination (c-indices with 95% confidence intervals (CI)) and calibration (graphical evaluation). Mean classical risk scores confirmed an intermediate-to-high-risk patient collective (logES_I 27.0±16.9%; STS-PROM 7.0±6.4%), mean 30-day mortality was 3.4% (TF 2.3%; TA 7.8%). Overall discrimination performance was best in FRANCE-2 (c-index 0.73, 95% CI 0.67–0.80), followed by STS-PROM (c-index 0.68, 95% CI 0.62–0.75), OBSERVANT (c-index 0.68, 95% CI 0.61–0.76), ES_II (c-index 0.64) and logES_I and GAV-2 (both c-indices 0.63). FRANCE-2 discriminated best in TF TAVR (c-index 0.72; range of c-indices 0.63 to 0.72), while OBSERVANT performed best in TA TAVR (c-index 0.70; range of c-indices 0.61 to 0.70). All risk scoring models – with the exception of lowest-risk deciles of STS-PROM and ES_II – showed an overestimation of mortality probability in all risk strata. Conclusion FRANCE-2 and OBSERVANT risk models showed superior discrimination performance to classical risk scoring models in TF and TA TAVR, however all models tended to overestimate mortality probability.

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.