P1633Age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score continues to predictive prognosis in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy

Abstract

Abstract Purpose ACEF (Age, Creatinine, and Ejection Fraction) andACEFMDRD (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease) score have been validated as effective predictors for prognosis in patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery or PCI. However, the predictive value for ICM (Ischemic Cardiomyopathy)was not clear. This study sought to investigate their predictive value in patients with ICM. Methods 862 ICM patients hospitalized in the Department of Cardiology were prospectively enrolled during November 2014 and December 2017.Inclusion criteria: previous definite diagnosis of myocardial infarction, previous PCI, CABG, or coronary angiographic findings of one or more vessel stenosis >70%; Simpson echocardiography showed LVEF <45%. Exclusion criteria: malignant tumors of any organ or once had a history of malignancies; and other serious diseases with estimated survival time less than one year.The ACEF score was calculated by the formula: age/ejection fraction + 1 (if creatinine >176 μmol/L). As for ACEFMDRD score, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the MDRD formula. Then using the formula: age/EF +1 point for every 10 mL/min reduction in eGFRMDRD below 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (up to a maximum of 6 points). Patients were divided into low, middle and high ACEF, ACEFMDRD tertiles. The median duration of follow-up was 13 months (IQR: 7–23 months). The clinical endpoints were all-cause mortality, cardiac mortality, major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) and re-hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Results The mean original ACEF and ACEFMDRD score were 1.99±0.63 and 2.53±1.42. Patients in high ACEF and ACEFMDRD tertile were associated with significantly higher all-cause and cardiac mortality, MACCEs and re-hospitalization for HF. Compared with ACEFMDRD score, original ACEF exhibited similar discrimination and predictive ability on all-cause mortality (AUC: 0.739 vs. 0.724, P=0.567), cardiac mortality (AUC: 0.733 vs. 0.717, P=0.525), MACCEs (AUC: 0.635 vs. 0.624, P=0.587) and rehospitalizaiotn (AUC: 0.642 vs. 0.632, P=0.757). In multivariate Cox analysis, the original ACEF or ACEFMDRD score were related with increasing risks of all-cause mortality (HR: 2.00 vs. 1.32, 95% CI: 1.46–2.73 vs. 1.13–1.53, P<0.001), cardiac mortality (HR: 1.97 vs. 1.28, 95% CI: 1.43–2.70 vs. 1.10–1.50, P<0.001 vs. P=0.002), MACCEs and re-hospitalization for HF, respectively. ROC curves of cardiac mortality Conclusions In patients with ICM, the original ACEF and ACEFMDRD score are independent predictors of adverse outcomes during 13-month follow-up, respectively. Acknowledgement/Funding None