P-1439 - Alcohol consumption and suicide in belarus

Abstract

Background Suicide is one of the main causes of premature mortality in Belarus, brining considerable losses of human lives. There is strong evidence of a crucial role of alcohol in explanation of high suicide rate and its profound fluctuations over the past decades in this country. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between the overall alcohol consumption and suicide mortality rates in Belarus. Method Trends in alcohol consumption per capita and age-standardized male and female suicide rates from 1980 to 2005 were analyzed employing ARIMA time series analysis. Results Alcohol consumption is significantly associated with both male and female suicide rates. The results suggest that 1 litre increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in a 7.4% increase in the male suicide rates and 3.2% increase in female suicide rates. The estimated effects of alcohol consumption on the age-specific suicide rates for men ranging from 0.024 (15–29 age group) to 0.082 (30–44 and 45–59 age groups). The estimated effects of alcohol consumption on age specific rates for women were positive for age groups 15–29 (0.017), 30–44 (0.047), 45–59 (0.039) and 60–74 (0.017). The estimated alcohol attributable fraction (AAF) for men ranging from 28% (15–29 age group) to 67% (30–44/45–59 age groups) and for women raging from 21% (15–29 age group) to 47% (30–34 age group). Conclusions The outcome of this study provides indirect support for the hypothesis that alcohol played a crucial role in the fluctuation in suicide mortality rate in Belarus during recent decades.