P1144 Forecasting the Future Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Korea through 2048: An Epidemiologic Study Employing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

Abstract

Abstract Background The global escalation of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) has precipitated an increased burden of disease and economic impact, particularly accentuated within the Asian context. The primary objective of this study is to predict the future prevalence trajectory of IBD in Korea and elucidate the pattern of its evolution. Methods Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service (2004–2018) were analyzed using a validated diagnostic algorithm to identify IBD patients. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, employing 2004–2017 data, predicted future trends based on past values and error correction. The model's accuracy was validated against the actual 2018 patient count. We projected IBD patient numbers and prevalence from 2018 to 2048, using a generalized linear model (GLM) to determine influencing factors. Results A consistent annual increase in the number of IBD cases across all age groups was observed from 2004 to 2018, with prevalence peaking in the 20–39 age group. The validation of our prediction model demonstrated an acceptable range of error for IBD prevalence, with a 2.45% error rate and a mean absolute difference of 2.61. The 2018–2048 projections confirm a steady rise in Crohn’s disease (CD), ulcerative colitis (UC), and IBD prevalence across both genders (Figure 1). IBD prevalence is projected to increase from 104.19 per 100,000 in 2018 to 149.59 per 100,000 by 2028, and further to 239.73 per 100,000 by 2048 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 223.73–255.73), marking a 130% increase. By 2048, the prevalence rates for UC and CD were estimated to be 159.40 per 100,000 (95% CI: 137.38–181.42) and 91.11 per 100,000 (95% CI: 0.81–181.41), respectively. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) of IBD is predicted at 4.51%, varying from a 2.77% decrease in those over 60 to a 14.20% increase in the 20–39 age group. Gender-stratified forecasts show a higher AAPC in males (6.17%) compared to females (2.75%) over the next 30 years. The highest AAPC, valued at 19.48, was noted in the male group aged 20–39 years. GLM analysis indicates significant age, gender, and temporal effects on IBD prevalence, with marked gender disparities in specific age groups for both CD and UC. In UC, males aged 20–39 experienced a significantly higher increase in prevalence than females. For CD, males also showed a higher prevalence increase than females in the 20–39 and 40–59 age groups (all interaction p-values < 0.05; Table 1). Conclusion This study forecasts a significant increase in Korean IBD prevalence by 2048, especially among males and the 20–39 age group, highlighting the need to focus on these high-risk demographics in future disease management.