Abstract
Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of different timepoint and threshold of systolic blood pressure (SBP) Time in Target Rang (TTR) in Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACEs). Method: A post-hoc analysis of the SPIRNT trial was conducted. Participants with complete BP data and no adverse events occurred in next 2-years follow-up were enrolled. SBP TTR was calculated at different timepoints (3, 12, 24 months) and thresholds (110-130mmHg; 110-140mmHg; 110-130mmHg for intensive and 120-140mmHg for standard treatment groups)(Fig 1). The primary outcome was MACEs occurred 2 years later, defined as the composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure and cardiovascular death. Results: 7134 participants in SPIRNT were enrolled in this study. SBP TTR indexes with independent predictive value of MACEs were selected by multivariable COX models adjusted for basic cardiovascular risk factors (Fig 2). Multivariable COX models identified SBP TTR calculated with 110-140mmHg threshold over 3 months (3month SBP TTR110-140) as the best predictor of MACEs. (Table 1). the nonlinear trend of 3month SBP TTR110-140 was also evaluated. (Fig 3) Then, a cut-off value of 0.65 for 3month SBP TTR110-140 was obtained by the point with the largest likelihood value in the RCS curve.(Fig 3). Patients with 3month TTR110-140 > 0.65 had 23.9% lower incidence of MACEs than patients with TTR ≤ 0.65 (HR 0.761[0.592-0978], P=0.033).(Table 2) In addition, for patients with early SBP well-control (3month SBP TTR110-140 >0.65), there was no significant difference in mean SBP between 110-130 mmHg and 130-140 mmHg (Fig4). Lasso regression also suggests that TTR110-140 has more informatics advantages than TTR110-130 in cox model at different timepoints (Fig5). Conclusions: 3month SBP TTR110-140 was considered to be the best predictor of MACEs occurred 2 years later in different SBP TTR indexes, which indicated the importance of early SBP control. This study also proposed 0.65 as the critical value of 3-month SBP TTR110-140 for prevention of the incident of MACEs.
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