P068: Predictors of admission in unscheduled return visits to the emergency department

Abstract

Introduction: The 72-hr unscheduled return visit (URV) of an emergency department (ED) patient is often used as a key performance indicator in Emergency Medicine. Patients with unscheduled return visits and admission to hospital (URVA) may represent a distinct subgroup of URVs compared to unscheduled return visits with no admission (URVNA). Methods: A retrospective cohort study of all 72-hr URVs in adults across nine EDs in the Edmonton Zone (EZ) over a one-year period (Jan 1 2015 Dec 31 2015) was performed using ED information system data. URVA and URVNA populations were compared and a multivariable analysis identified predictors of URVA. Results: Analysis of 40,870 total URV records, including 3,363 URVAs, revealed predictors of URVA on the index visit including older age (>65 yrs, OR 3.6), fewer annual ED visits (<4 visits, OR 2.0), higher disease acuity (CTAS 2, OR 2.6), gastrointestinal presenting complaint (OR 2.2), presenting to a large referral hospital (OR 1.4), and more hours spent in the ED (>12 hours, OR 2.0). A decrease in CTAS score (increase in disease acuity) upon return visit was also a risk factor (-1 CTAS level, OR 2.6). ED crowding at the index visit, as indicated by occupancy level, was not a predictor. Conclusion: We demonstrate that URVA patients comprise a distinct subgroup of 72-hr URVs across an entire health region. Risk factors for URVA are present at the index visit suggesting that patients at high risk for URVA may be identifiable prior to admission.