基于P-S-R模型的湖南省土地生态安全评价与趋势预测<br>Land Ecological Security Evaluation and Trend Forecast of Hunan Province Based on P-S-R Model

Abstract

根据湖南省土地生态环境的现状和特点，基于P-S-R模型构建了湖南省土地生态安全评价指标体系，应用AHP层次分析法和专家打分法确定权重，采用综合指数法对湖南省2000~2009年的土地生态安全状况进行了评价。结果表明：湖南省土地生态环境安全级别较低，生态环境质量处于敏感状态，但土地生态环境质量总体呈现上升的趋势。运用GM(1,1)模型预测了2010~2019年湖南省土地生态安全综合指数的动态变化，预测显示：从2010~2019年湖南省土地生态安全综合指数呈现上升趋势(0.47~0.86)，2015年土地生态环境状态进入良好级别，2019年达到安全级别。该研究可为湖南省土地生态安全及其未来生态环境质量改善和生态安全规划管理提供依据。 According to the characteristics of land ecological environment of Hunan, to refer many scholars’ research, the paper constructed land ecological security index system of Hunan province based on P-S-R model. AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and expert scoring method are used to determine the weight, and the integrated index method is used to analyze and evaluate the dynamic state of land ecological environment in Hunan province. The result show that the land ecological environment of Hunanis rising, but it just kept in sensitive level during the past ten years. Using GM(1,1) model predicted the dynamic changes of land ecological security in 2010-2019. The prediction shows: The land ecological security ofHunanprovince showed a rising trend (0.47 - 0.86) from 2010 to 2019. The land ecological environment will be in good state in 2015, and is expected to be safe level in 2019. According to this paper, some corresponding measures and solutions can be put forward to solve the problem and improve the environment.