Ozone variability driven by the synoptic patterns over China during 2014–2022 and its implications for crop yield and economy

Abstract

China has experienced increasingly serious ozone (O3) pollution in recent years, posing a great threat to agricultural ecosystem and economy. In this study, the decadal records of surface ozone concentrations across China (2014–2022), combined with the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) and multiple linear regression (MLR) methods are used to determine the surface ozone variability driven by the synoptic weather patterns. The maximum daily average 8-h (MDA8) ozone concentrations increase significantly from 2014 to 2019 at 2.5–5.2 μg m−3 yr−1 and decrease over the years 2019–2021, with a rebound in 2022. Strong connections between surface O3 levels and SSC synoptic weather patterns are identified, with the dry tropical (DT) weather pattern featured by dry and hot air masses as the main contributor to 35.3% of the high ozone occurrences and partly explaining the observed ozone trends in recent decade (e.g., +9.7% ozone increase per tripling of the DT frequency). Quantitative MLR analysis further confirms that meteorological conditions play an important role in the seasonal ozone trends from 2014 to 2022 (up to a 28.6% contribution), and daily-maximum air temperature and solar radiation could explain 11.3–51.0% and 11.1–37.4% of the meteorological-driven ozone trends. Using the agricultural statistical data and empirical algorithms, it is estimated that the annual yields of winter wheat, single-cropping rice, double-cropping early rice and late rice are reduced by 9.0–17.0%, 6.0−8.2%, 4.8−9.4% and 3.9−7.0%, respectively, in China during 2014–2022 due to the ozone exposure, along with a total economic loss of 74.9–171.9 billion yuan per year. This study is meaningful to understand the driving factors for the increasingly serious ozone pollution and is beneficial for the synergetic control of air pollution and climate mitigation.