Ozone Effects on Douro Vineyards under Climate Change

Ana Ascenso,Carolina Viceto,Alfredo Rocha,Carlos Silveira,Ana Isabel Miranda,Myriam Lopes,Carla Gama

doi:10.3390/atmos12101238

Ana Ascenso, Carolina Viceto + Show 5 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12101238

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Abstract

Tropospheric ozone (O3) levels in southern Europe have an increasing tendency, in close relation with the higher incidence of hot summers and heatwaves. Given that O3 is one of the most damaging pollutants for vegetation, known to affect productivity and quality of crops, it is necessary to develop more rigorous and consistent methods of risk assessment that consider climate change conditions. Studying the O3 deposition over the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR), which is one of the most productive wine areas in Portugal, and assessing its potential effects under a climate change scenario, was the purpose of this study. To that end, the chemical transport model CHIMERE, with a spatial resolution of 1 km2, fed by meteorological data from the WRF model, was applied for a recent past climate (2003 to 2005) and future mid-term (2049 and 2064) and long-term (2096 and 2097) scenarios. Simulations for future climate were performed considering: (i) only the climate change effect, and (ii) the effect of climate change together with future air pollutant emissions. The assessment of the potential damage in terms of wine productivity and quality (sugar content) was performed through analysis of O3 deposition and the application of concentration–response functions, based on AOT40 values. Modeling results show that a reduction in emission of O3 precursors can successfully decrease AOT40 levels in the DDR, but it is not enough to accomplish the European Commission target value for the protection of vegetation. If the emissions remain constant, the exposure–response functions indicate that, in the long-term, AOT40 levels could worsen wine productivity and quality.

Highlights

Air pollution and climate change are closely related. Air pollutants and their precursors are often co-emitted with carbon dioxide (CO2) or other Green House Gases, and air pollutant emissions can cause warming or cooling effects on the climate
Identifying the co-benefits of reducing air pollutants that reduce the impacts of climate change is an important contribution to climate change research and mitigation
The MPIESM-LR model was developed by the MPI with a horizontal resolution of 1.9◦ [30]. This model participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) that considered future greenhouse gas emission scenarios defined by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) [31]

Summary

Introduction

Air pollution and climate change are closely related. Air pollutants and their precursors are often co-emitted with carbon dioxide (CO2) or other Green House Gases, and air pollutant emissions can cause warming or cooling effects on the climate. Tropospheric ozone (O3) levels in southern Europe have an increasing tendency, which is related to the higher incidence of hot summers and heatwaves [1,7,8,9]. Modeling results indicate that climate change alone will cause O3 concentrations to increase in many regions in the world [10,11,12]. In addition to weather conditions, such as temperature, humidity, cloud cover, and winds, O3 concentrations depend on emissions of its precursors as well as long-range transport [13]

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