Ozone depletion, related UVB changes and increased skin cancer incidence

Abstract

Stratospheric ozone at middle latitudes shows a seasonal variation of about ±20%, a quasi-biennial oscillation of 1–10% range and a long-term variation in which the level was almost steady up to about 1979 and declined thereafter to the present day by about 10%. These variations are expected to be reflected in solar UVB observed at the ground, but in an opposite direction. Thus UVB should have had a long-term increase of about 10–20%, which should cause an increase in skin cancer incidence of about 20–40%. Skin cancer incidence has increased all over the world, e.g. about 90% in USA during 1974–1990. It is popularly believed that this increase in skin cancer incidence is related to the recent ozone depletion. This seems to be incorrect, for two reasons. Firstly, the observed skin cancer increase is too large (90%) compared with the expected value (40%) from ozone depletion. Secondly, cancer does not develop immediately after exposure to solar UVB. The sunburns may occur within hours; but cancer development and detection may take years, even decades. Hence the observed skin cancer increase since 1974 (no data available for earlier periods) must have occurred due to exposure to solar UVB in the 1950s and 1960s, when there was no ozone depletion. Thus, the skin cancer increase must be attributed to harmful solar UVB levels existing even in the 1960s, accentuated later not by ozone depletion (which started only much later, by 1979) but by other causes, such as a longer human life span, better screening, increasing tendencies of sunbathing at beaches, etc., in affluent societies. On the other hand, the recent ozone depletion and the associated UVB increases will certainly take their toll; only that the effects will not be noticed now but years or decades from now. The concern for the future expressed in the Montreal Protocol for reducing ozone depletion by controlling CFC production is certainly justified, especially because increased UVB is harmful to animal and plant life also. However, because the increased cancer incidence observed so far may not be (entirely) due to ozone depletion, other causes need to be investigated urgently and, if possible, remedied. Otherwise, deaths due to skin cancer will continue even after CFC production is controlled and ozone levels are recovered. There is no room for complacency. If nothing else is possible, use of protective screens and creams and avoiding exposure to sunlight during peak hours (10:00–15:00 h) should be strongly recommended. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.