Abstract
The public pension system crisis, arising mainly from the changing demographic, has hit different countries worldwide. For governments and citizens, it is very important to have reliable information regarding pensions in order to make decisions with a maximum degree of effectiveness and to ensure a decent income in retirement. This study presents a new method for optimizing forecasts of the average pension by using the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator, the induced ordered weighted averaging (IOWA) operator, the generalized ordered weighted averaging (GOWA) operator, the induced generalized ordered weighted averaging (IGOWA) operator, and particular forms of the probabilistic ordered weighted averaging (POWA) operator and the quasi-arithmetic ordered weighted averaging (Quasi-OWA) operator. It also accounts for inflation or deflation, providing a more realistic assessment of the average pension. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility to include the attitudinal character of experts or decision-makers into the calculation. The study also presents an illustrative example of how to forecast the real average pension for all autonomous communities of Spain by using this new approach.
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