Abstract
Due to the rapid economic development in China, the conflict between the increasing traditional energy consumption and the severe environmental threats is more and more serious. To ease the situation, greater use of wind energy in China could be the solution for energy conservation and sustainable environment in the long run. This paper describes the presentation of wind power in China, which covers distribution, bases, installed capacity, power generation from the spatial perspective and the environmental benefit. In addition, grey model (GM(1,1) ) and scenario analysis are employed to forecast the installed capacity in China from 2017 to 2025, then the evaluation of two methods is presented. By this research, the results are shown as the following: (1) the North region has great wind energy with 2500–3000 giga watt (GW) and the offshore wind energy in the Southeast is abundant; (2) the Inner Mongolia base located in North China makes a great contribution to wind power as well as having great potential for wind power development with the potential of 1300 GW; (3) the growth rate of installed capacity and wind power generation in China is declining with 100% in 2006 to 30% in 2015, 107% in 2009 to 17% in 2015, respectively; (4) the “three North” region has made a great contribution to current installed capacity and wind power generation with 74% and 71%, respectively; (5) wind power has significant environmental benefits with coal reduction of 23,887 × 104 tce, CO2 reduction of 66,854 × 104 tons and SO2 reduction of 173 × 104 tons in total from 2008 to 2015; (6) the installed capacity in China from 2017 to 2025 is predicted utilizing a GM(1,1) model with 38,311.1810 × 103 GW in 2025, while, with a scenario analysis, the installed capacity will reach up to 40,000 × 103 GW in 2025 under the high GDP growth rate and 29,000 × 103 GW in 2025 under the low GDP growth rate, respectively. Finally, it can be concluded that China has a solid foundation for the wind power development due to its abundant wind resources and great potential for wind power. Furthermore, the sustainable development can be guaranteed, and reduction in energy usage as well as emissions can be achieved by promoting wind power widely and effectively.
Highlights
According to the “5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)”, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased 40% from the concentration before industrialization, which reached 391 mg/L by 2011 [1]
With the GM(1,1), the prediction of installed capacity is presented in Table 5 and Figure 7. It is obvioSuusstaitnoabfiilintyd20t1h7,a9t, 1t4h5e4 installed capacity in China is increasing from year to year with an9 oafv12erage annual growth rate of 9.56% from 2017 to 2025
It is clear to find that the installed capacity in the future is related to WtheitGhDthPegsrcoewntahrrioateanclaolsyeslyis.,WithiesncltehaerGtDoPfignrdowthtahtrtahteeiisnhsitgahll,etdhecianpstaacliletyd icnaptahceitfyuitnuCrehinsarewlailtled to the GrDeaPchgr4o0w,00t0h ×ra1t0e3 cGloWseinly.20W25h,ewnhtihleeitGwDiPll bgero2w9,0th00ra×t1e0i3sGhWighu,ntdheer itnhestlaolwledGDcaPpgarcoitwythinraCteh.inIna will addition, it can be concluded that the installed capacity in China from 2017 to 2025 is increasing under all scenarios
Summary
According to the “5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)”, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased 40% from the concentration before industrialization, which reached 391 mg/L by 2011 [1]. Wind energy, solar energy, hydro-energy, bio-energy, hydrogen energy are considered promising energies in the future that contribute greatly to realizing sustainable development on energy and environment [16] Among these renewable energies, wind energy used for power generation is popular in China because of its mature technology, low cost and environmentally friendly characteristic [17]. Since wind power generation is a sustainable and clean source of energy with environmentally friendly production using green and renewable power [25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34], it is essential and necessary to promote the development of wind energy in China to solve the conflict between the energy depletion and environmental pollution.
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