Overview of Russian and global long-term healthcare forecasts (literature review)

Abstract

In the 21st century, more and more attention is paid to long-term forecasts for the development of countries, regions and the world as a whole; the scope of their application is expanding, including the coverage of social sectors, and, above all, healthcare. Acquaintance with the existing foreign and domestic practice of developing long-term forecasts can be useful not only for those involved in their development, but also for decision makers in the healthcare sector.
 The purpose is generalization and systematization of published long-term forecasts in healthcare. Systematic search for publications according to the developed protocol. The protocol included databases of peer-reviewed publications, search terms, and search restrictions. The search for publications was carried out in the databases including Embase, Medline, Scopus, RSCI, etc. The search query was carried out using a combination of terms “free text” and “medical subject headings” related to the definition of long-term forecasts in healthcare. The main search restrictions were the language of publications, the date of publication and the forecast period covered. Conducting a comprehensive analysis, generalization and systematization of the information received on published foreign and domestic long-term forecasts in the field of healthcare, covering forecasts for the world as a whole, its regions and the Russian Federation. The long-term forecasts are most widespread in certain areas of healthcare development. Comprehensive forecasts covering several aspects of system development are less common. Quantitative forecasting methods are used more often, qualitative methods are mainly used in forecasting the technological development of the sector.
 Conclusion. Studying international experience, strengthening the Russian institutional base for conducting comprehensive long-term forecasts in healthcare will contribute to a better understanding of possible scenarios for the sector development and increase the state ability to respond in a timely manner to the economic, environmental and social changes taking place in the country.