Abstract
Based on the theory of risk analysis, this study develops a LHS –MC method to evaluate dam overtopping probability that accounts for the uncertainties arising from wind speed and peak flood. LHS method is used to generate samples of peak flow rate and wind speed especially for rare events. One example of dam overtopping risk analysis is presented to demonstrate the validity and capability of the proposed method. By means of numerical example, it is shown that LHS method is efficient which tends to convergence within a few simulation times. Reservoir routing, which incorporates operation rules, wind setup, and run-up, is used to evaluate dam overtopping probability.
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