Overpopulation in developed societies

Abstract

The unprecedented and ever increasing growth of world population is now widely recognised and accepted as a cause for grave concern. An error that is commonly made, however, is to see this as mainly a problem of the developing world and to believe that even here it will resolve itself through the mechanism of the 'demographic transition'. Briefly, primitive communities have high birth rates and high death rates and therefore stable populations of low density. Advancing communities have high birth rates and decreasing death rates giving rapid growth rates of 2 per cent or 3 per cent or even more per year. Advanced societies in general have low birth rates and low death rates and a 'slow' growth of 1⁄2 per cent to 1 per cent/annum. What is often overlooked is the fact that by this third stage of the demographic transition such nations are already densely populated and that even 1⁄2 per cent growth/ annum in, for example, England and Wales with 324 persons/square kin, represents many more additional persons each year than would a 3 per cent growth rate in say a sparsely populated African country. Furthermore, although some developed countries have had birth rates at replacement rate for brief periods, the general trend has been, and still is, upwards. The starting point of this chapter is the fact that most developed countries are already densely populated, are continuing to grow in numbers at a substantial rate, and despite recent decreases in birth rates, might well, under a policy of laissez-faire, revert to rapid growth rates again. A policy of population limitation is therefore essential if they are in fact overpopulated. However, given the 'benefits' of industrialisation, advanced technology, mechanised agriculture and efficient health services, do such countries necessarily have a population problem ?