Overestimation of Chernobyl consequences: poorly substantiated information published

Abstract

Previously, we commented on some publications overestimating medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident (Jargin 2007; 2009a, b). In this context, it is interesting to note that the New York Academy of Sciences published recently a volume dedicated to the Chernobyl accident (New York Academy of Sciences 2009). Most of the articles in this volume are authored by Alexei Vladimirovich Yablokov, whose work was previously criticized (Jargin 2010). In New York Academy of Sciences 2009, Prof. Yablokov cites mass media, commercial editions, websites of unclear affiliation and other non-professional publications, to substantiate his opinion. At the same time, international literature on the medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident is scarcely quoted and almost not discussed. Articles by other authors in (New York Academy of Sciences 2009) also include poorly substantiated information. To give an example, Chap. 13 in New York Academy of Sciences 2009 on ‘‘Decorporation of Chernobyl radionuclides’’ (Nesterenko and Nesterenko 2009) is largely based on two previous publications (Bandazhevskaya et al. 2004; Nesterenko et al. 2004). A collective of 94 children from radiation-contaminated areas living in a sanatorium was subdivided into 3 groups according to the Cs activity concentration measured in their bodies. The following figures are presented (Bandazhevskaya et al. 2004): in the first cohort (33 children), activity concentration was below 5 Bq/kg body weight; in the second cohort (31 children), it was 38.4 ± 2.4 Bq/kg, and in the third cohort (30 children), it was 122 ± 18.5 Bq/kg. The difference between the second and the third cohort is extremely significant (P \ 0.001), whereas the difference between the first and the second cohort is virtually absolute (P-value approaching zero). In general, the P-value indicates whether the populations really have the same mean, and whether there is a chance that random sampling would result in means as far apart as observed (GraphPad 1999). The extremely low P-value demonstrates that the given figures cannot come from a single group of children, all of them ‘‘originating from the same rural area of the Gomel oblast’’ (Nesterenko et al. 2004). Statistically significant differences between the groups were found also in regard to cardio-vascular symptoms unusual in children, such as arterial hypertension and alterations of the electrocardiogram (ECG). Furthermore, it is reported that treatment with apple pectin significantly reduced the Cs body burden of the children and was also associated with an ECG improvement. Note that, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Cs activity concentration in milk from contaminated areas (the main alimentary exposure source for children) has been under the permissible level since 1996 at the latest (IAEA 2006) and that the study in question was performed in 2003. Moreover, the Cs-lowering treatment with apple pectin, ‘‘a sorbent binding heavy metals (including Cs) in the intestinal lumen’’ (Nesterenko et al. 2004) appears pointless in a sanatorium where all children ‘‘received exclusively clean food’’ (Nesterenko et al. 2004). A teaspoon of diluted apple pectin given twice a day to the children was reported to reduce the ‘‘Cs level in children’’ by 62% (Nesterenko et al. 2004), the corresponding P-value being not only below 0.01, as it is indicated in the article, but in fact below 0.0001 [paired t-test calculated on the basis of the figures from (Nesterenko et al. 2004) using GraphPad InStat version 3.00 for Windows, GraphPad Software Inc., San Diego, California, S. V. Jargin (&) People’s Friendship University of Russia (Moscow), Clementovski per 6-82, 115184 Moscow, Russia e-mail: sjargin@mail.ru