Abstract
AbstractA number of recent studies have identified an “overconfidence effect” in psychosis, whereby people with schizophrenia are overconfident in errors while simultaneously slightly underconfident when accurate. This effect may have implications for why delusions, which are based on inaccurate inferences, perceptions and judgements, are typically held with high conviction. Given the importance the overconfidence effect may have in accounting for delusional conviction, the current narrative review aims to summarise and critique the recent evidence for the effect within schizophrenia. People with schizophrenia were consistently found to be overconfident in errors and slightly underconfident in correct appraisals, and this effect appears not to be an artefact of poor task performance. While the overconfidence effect has been linked to delusion-proneness in the general population, there was less direct evidence linking overconfidence to delusional symptoms in clinical populations. Future studies need to ado...
Highlights
Overconfidence is broadly defined as when one’s confidence in subjective judgements, inferences, or predictions is reliably greater than the objective accuracy should allow
It has been proposed that the bias may possibly account for the symptoms of schizophrenia, such as delusions, and how such beliefs are maintained with such high conviction despite the presence of counter-evidence
The present paper has provided an overview of the overconfidence effect within schizophrenia, characterised by overconfidence in errors and slight underconfidence when correct
Summary
Overconfidence is broadly defined as when one’s confidence in subjective judgements, inferences, or predictions is reliably greater than the objective accuracy should allow. It has been studied extensively within the general population (for a review see Hoffrage, 2004), which has identified a number of conceptually similar effects. This review will examine the evidence suggesting that overconfidence is heightened in schizophrenia, before addressing the issue of whether the bias can adequately account for delusional conviction
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