Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition

Dominik M Piehlmaier

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-61078-z

Dominik M Piehlmaier

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61078-z

Copy DOI

Abstract

Child development research on overconfidence suggests that the bias is present and persistent in preschoolers and kindergartners. However, little is known about what drives overconfidence among young decision-makers, how it changes over a large number of repetitions, and whether such changes differ by gender or age. The current experimental study analyzes data from 60 children, aged 4 years 0 months to 6 years 10 months, who played 60 turns of the Children’s Gambling Task and provided regular estimates on their performance. A video intervention, designed to demonstrate the consequences of disadvantageous choices, was tested in a double-blind randomized controlled trial to assess its impact on overconfidence. The results show that every third participant remained overconfident even after 60 trials and constant feedback. Unlike previously reported, gender seems to be a determining factor in this process. Lastly, providing additional information through a video intervention appears to have no impact on participants’ overconfidence levels.

Highlights

Younger decision-makers exhibit more persistence in excessively confident predictions, even after repeating the task, recalling their past performance before providing an estimate for the repetition, or assessing the performance of another child[8]
Participants were asked to lift a metal ball up a tower on a cart that was secretly controlled by magnetic force
A possible explanation for these conflicting results may be found in the underlying experimental tasks. The former studies that reported a decrease of the bias with age utilize physically executable tasks while the latter work relied on an abstract assessment of a future event that required a judgment under uncertainty without any physically executable actions

Summary

Introduction

Younger decision-makers exhibit more persistence in excessively confident predictions, even after repeating the task, recalling their past performance before providing an estimate for the repetition, or assessing the performance of another child[8]. The former aspect suggests that children do not develop underconfidence with practice (UWP) at an early age. A possible explanation for these conflicting results may be found in the underlying experimental tasks The former studies that reported a decrease of the bias with age utilize physically executable tasks (e.g., lifting a metal ball, throwing beanbags, etc.) while the latter work relied on an abstract assessment of a future event that required a judgment under uncertainty without any physically executable actions. A large number of repetitions could lead to more calibrated estimations

Methods

Results

Conclusion