Abstract
Background and objectiveThe COVID-19 pandemic started in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Although there are some doubts about the reporting of cases and deaths in China, it seems that this country was able to control the epidemic more effectively than many other countries. In this paper, we would like to analyze the measures taken in China and compare them with other countries in order to find out what they can learn from China.MethodsWe develop a system dynamics model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan. Based on a number of simulations we analyze the impact of changing parameters, such as contact rates, on the development of a second wave.ResultsAlthough China’s health care system seems to be poorly financed and inefficient, the epidemic was brought under control in a comparably short period of time and no second wave was experienced in Wuhan until today. The measures to contain the epidemic do not differ from what was implemented in other countries, but China applied them very early and rigorously. For instance, the consequent implementation of health codes and contact-tracking technology contributed to contain the disease and effectively prevented the second and third waves.ConclusionsChina’s success in fighting COVID-19 is based on a very strict implementation of a set of measures, including digital management. While other countries discuss relaxing the lock-down at a rate of 50 per 100,000 inhabitants, China started local lock-downs at a rate of 3 per 100,000. We call for a public debate whether this policy would be feasible for more liberal countries as well.
Highlights
In December 2019, a Pneumonia of unknown cause broke out in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China
Modelling COVID-19 – an overview An epidemic is terminated if the net reproductive rate (Nt) at a point of time t is lower than one, i.e., if every newly infected will infect less than one other person
We have to analyze the dynamics of the diffusion of COVID-19 and estimate R0 in order to assess the factors contributing to the success of interventions against the diseases in Wuhan
Summary
In December 2019, a Pneumonia of unknown cause broke out in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. On January 12, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially named the. As SARS-Cov-2 is highly infectious [6, 7], the new disease spread rapidly to other countries and continents and less than 3 months after the first reported cases in Wuhan WHO officially declared a COVID-19 pandemic [8, 9] (11.03.2020). While many countries and in particular Europe, North and South America are suffering from very strong waves of the disease with millions of cases and victims, China seems to have won the. While one might challenge the quality and transparency of public health information from China, it is a matter of fact that China has comparably few cases of COVID-19. The COVID-19 pandemic started in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.
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