Overall Warming with Reduced Seasonality: Temperature Change in New England, USA, 1900–2020

Stephen S Young,Joshua S Young

doi:10.3390/cli9120176

Abstract

The ecology, economy, and cultural heritage of New England is grounded in its seasonal climate, and this seasonality is now changing as the world warms due to human activity. This research uses temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) to analyze annual and seasonal temperature changes in the New England region of the United States from 1900 to 2020 at the regional and state levels. Results show four broad trends: (1) New England and each of the states (annually and seasonally) have warmed considerably between 1900 and 2020; (2) all of the states and the region as a whole show three general periods of change (warming, cooling, and then warming again); (3) the winter season is experiencing the greatest warming; and (4) the minimum temperatures are generally warming more than the average and maximum temperatures, especially since the 1980s. The average annual temperature (analyzed at the 10-year and the five-year average levels) for every state, and New England as a whole, has increased greater than 1.5 °C from 1900 to 2020. This warming is diminishing the distinctive four-season climate of New England, resulting in changes to the region’s ecology and threatening the rural economies throughout the region.

Highlights

It is well documented that our world is warming [1,2,3], and much of this warming is due to the emission of greenhouse gases from human activity [4]
The season experiencing the greatest warming is the winter season, with some states warming more than 3 ◦ C (p < 0.01) based on the 10-year analysis, and some states warming more than 4 ◦ C (p < 0.01) based on the five-year analysis
This research clearly shows that New England is warming faster than the world average temperature change, with every season experiencing a warming trend

Summary

Introduction

It is well documented that our world is warming [1,2,3], and much of this warming is due to the emission of greenhouse gases from human activity [4]. Warming from anthropogenic emissions since the start of the industrial revolution, and especially in the past 60 years, will persist for centuries to millennia, and will cause additional long-term changes to our climate system [5]. Models show that we will see continuing changes potentially for centuries to come [8,9], based on the amount of greenhouse gases that we have already put into the atmosphere. To avoid the most catastrophic climate changes in the future, we need to limit future global temperatures. The long-term goal has been to keep global temperatures from rising 2 ◦ C or more since the start of the Industrial

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion