Overall U.S.-Taiwan Relations: 2006 in Retrospect and Prospects for 2007

Abstract

In 2006, overall Taiwan-U.S. relations remained smooth; however, interactions between Taipei and Washington underwent important changes, sparked mainly by the increasing complexity and unpredictability of Taiwan's domestic politics. Throughout this year, Taiwan-U.S. relations have been shaken by several key issues, i.e., President Chen Shui-bian's push for Taiwan's sovereignty status, Taiwan's reluctance to fulfill U.S. expectations about this island's self-defense, and Taiwan-U.S. contentions on Free Trade Agreement (FTA) issues. So far Taiwan-U.S. political relations have been marked mainly by a problem of policy communication, and not a serious split in strategic interests. Looking into 2007, Taiwan is going to enter a period of presidential election campaigning. Taiwan's political divisions are likely to continue beyond the 2007 legislative elections and the 2008 presidential election, regardless of which party wins the presidency, for the remainder of President Chen's term. It will be an urgent task for both Taipei and Washington to build a regular and institutional platform for bilateral dialogues. Without overcoming the structural problems related to bilateral communications, Taiwan-U.S. relations will continue to be plagued by political factions that may do significant harm to both sides' common interests.