OVATION‐SM: A model of auroral precipitation based on SuperMAG generalized auroral electrojet and substorm onset times

Abstract

OVATION‐SM, an empirical model for different types of auroral energy flux, has been developed. OVATION‐SM is a linear combination of the SME index (or square root of SME index for monoenergetic auroras), time since the last substorm onset, and time until the next substorm onset. Because OVATION‐SM is based on ground magnetometer data and products of that data, it is possible to calculate continuous auroral power at a 1 min cadence for 30+ years. OVATION‐SM captures the gross auroral morphology, including onsets and other brightening and dimming events. The detailed spatial auroral morphology is beyond the scope of the current version of OVATION‐SM. OVATION‐SM explains more than 70% of the variance in Polar UV Imager nightside auroral power, which makes it a better predictor of nightside auroral power than any other model currently available.