Ovarian endometrioma recurrence after laparoscopic surgery: First assessment of ACSAP predicting score.

Abstract

We aimed to develop and validate a predictive score to estimate the post-operative recurrence risk after laparoscopic excision of ovarian endometrioma (OMA). The prediction score was developed using a training set comprising 431 patients with OMA who underwent laparoscopic surgery at our institution between January 2015 and September 2017. A follow-up period of at least 5 years was required. Clinical data were entered into least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to build a scoring system that predicted OMA recurrence. A testing set containing 185 patients from October 2017 to October 2018 was used to assess its performance. Based on LASSO regression, the final score (ACSAP score) included five clinical predictors (0-15 points): Age, cyst size, previous surgery for OMA, revised American Society for Reproductive Medicine stage and post-operative pregnancy. The area under the curve values of the score were 0.741 (0.765) and 0.727 (0.795) for predicting 3-year and 5-year OMA recurrence, respectively, in the training (testing) set. The score stratified patients into three risk groups in both sets, with significant differences in the 5-year recurrence rates (low-risk, 5.3% [0%]; intermediate-risk, 20.2% [16.5%] and high-risk, 48.0% [36.5%]; P < 0.001). Moreover, patients in the intermediate- and high-risk groups exhibited a significant reduction in the 5-year cumulative recurrence following a minimum of 15-month post-operative medical treatment (both P < 0.05). The ACSAP score may be a concise and useful tool for identifying patients with a higher risk of OMA recurrence after surgery who might receive long-term post-operative medical treatment.