OUTMIGRATION FROM UKRAINE: LOSING BRAINS AND BRAWN

Abstract

The main goal of the article is to analyze the key trends in temporary labor migration, emigration and the brain drain from Ukraine after 2014. The situation with outmigration from Ukraine is catastrophic today. It`s not by chance Franck Duvell calls Ukraine “Europe’s Mexico” because, as he states, the level of migration from both countries is comparable. Ukraine would not have experienced such a daunting loss of labor and intellectual resources had the military crisis in Ukraine’s East and its economic fallout not coincided with the growing need of the Visegrad Four countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia – for a labor force to help develop their economies. Thus both push and pull factors are at work: the conflict with Russia acts to drive migration, while changes in the migration policies of Ukraine’s neighbors have opened their labor markets to Ukrainians. Broadly speaking, this two-pronged mechanism accounts for the mass outmigration of Ukrainians since 2014. The active growth in migration to Russia was observed in 2015–2016, but since 2017, its intensity began to decline. Better opportunities for migrant workers in other countries, particularly Poland, which pays a higher average salary than Russia does, have attracted Ukrainian workers and may be largely responsible for the sharp decline in labor migration to Russia. At the same time, the Visegrad Four countries do not yet have a single coherent migration policy. While countries, such as Poland and Slovakia are generally interested in attracting foreign workers and students, Hungary is focused on encouraging ethnic migration (here the Hungarian policy turns out to be a bit like Russia, which focuses on attracting compatriots), and the Czech Republic, similar to Germany, is oriented toward a highly skilled labor force. Changes in the German migration policy and the growing need for Hungary in the workforce suggest that in the future we will observe a competition for the Ukrainian labor force between Germany and Poland, on the one hand, and between the Visegrad Four countries, on the other.