Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets

Abstract

AbstractThe accuracy of hog and cattle price forecasts from four outlook programs is compared with forecasts derived from futures markets. Most of the series begin in the mid to late 1970s and end in 2007. Root mean squared error (RMSE) comparisons indicate the difference between outlook and futures RMSE is relatively small in most cases. In directional terms, outlook forecasts beat futures prices only 2 out of 11 times in hogs, and 1 out of 7 times in cattle. However, the null hypothesis that futures encompasses outlook is rejected in 5 of 11 cases for hogs, and 4 of 7 cases for cattle.