Outcomes of Peak, Typical, and Variability in Performance of College Football Teams

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate the typical, peak, and variability in performance of both the offensive and defensive units of college football teams over the course of a season in predicting three objective team-level outcomes (win percentage, fan home game attendance, and bowl game payout). Data were obtained from an archival sports database for 193 Bowl Subdivision college football teams for three separate seasons. When all three types of performance were considered simultaneously, only typical performance significantly predicted win percentage and bowl game payout outcomes, and it explained between 19 % (for bowl game payout) and 49 % (for record) of the variance. All interactions between typical performance and performance variability were non-significant. These null results point to a boundary condition in the relationship between performance variability and outcomes: whether the outcome is subject to evaluator attributional processes (e.g., raises, performance evaluations) or is more objective in nature. Although null, the present results question a sometimes implicit assumption that performance inconsistency is detrimental to organizational functioning. This is one of the first studies to examine outcomes of peak performance, typical performance, and performance variability at the team level. Additionally, most studies examining the outcomes of such performance use subjective outcomes such as performance ratings, whereas this study provides one of the first examinations using objective outcomes such as bowl game payout.