Outcomes and predictors of in-hospital mortality among cirrhotic patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in upper Egypt.

Abstract

Variceal bleeding is one of the most frequent causes of morbidity and mortality among cirrhotic patients. Clinical endoscopic features and outcomes of cirrhotic patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) have been rarely reported. Our aim is to identify treatment outcomes and predictors of in-hospital mortality among cirrhotic patients with non-variceal bleeding in Upper Egypt. A prospective study of 93 cirrhotic patients with NVUGIB who were admitted to the Tropical Medicine and Gastroenterology Department, Assiut University Hospital (Assiut, Egypt) over a one-year period (November 2011 to October 2012). Clinical features, endoscopic findings, clinical outcomes, and in-hospital mortality rates were studied. Patient mortality during hospital stay was reported. Many independent risk factors of mortality were evaluated by means of univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses. Of 93 patients, 65.6% were male with a mean age of 53.3 years. The most frequent cause of bleeding was duodenal ulceration (26.9%). Endoscopic treatment was needed in 45.2% of patients, rebleeding occurred in 4.3%, and the in-hospital mortality was 14%. Hypovolemic shock was the most common cause of death (46.2%). Independent risk factors of in-hospital mortality among cirrhotic patients with NVUGIB in our study were bacterial infection during hospitalization [odds ratio (OR) =0.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) =0.03-0.89], shock (OR =1.12, 95% CI =0.68-1.54), early rebleeding (OR =2.26, 95% CI =1.85-3.21), low serum albumin (OR =3.81, 95% CI =2.35-4.67), low baseline hemoglobin (OR =0.714, 95% CI =0.32-1.24), and the need for endoscopic treatment (OR =2.96, 95% CI =0.62-3.63). Bacterial infection during hospitalization, shock, early rebleeding, low serum albumin, low baseline hemoglobin, and the need for endoscopic treatment were independent risk factors of in-hospital mortality among cirrhotic patients with NVUGIB in Upper Egypt.