Outcome Prediction within Twelve Hours after Severe Traumatic Brain Injury by Quantitative Cerebral Blood Flow

Abstract

We measured quantitative cortical mantle cerebral blood flow (CBF) by stable xenon computed tomography (CT) within the first 12 h after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) to determine whether neurologic outcome can be predicted by CBF stratification early after injury. Stable xenon CT was used for quantitative measurement of CBF (mL/100 g/min) in 22 cortical mantle regions stratified as follows: low (0-8), intermediate (9-30), normal (31-70), and hyperemic (>70) in 120 patients suffering severe (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score ≤8) TBI. For each of these CBF strata, percentages of total cortical mantle volume were calculated. Outcomes were assessed by Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score at discharge (DC), and 1, 3, and 6 months after discharge. Quantitative cortical mantle CBF differentiated GOS 1 and GOS 2 (dead or vegetative state) from GOS 3-5 (severely disabled to good recovery; p<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for percent total normal plus hyperemic flow volume (TNHV) predicting GOS 3-5 outcome at 6 months for CBF measured <6 and <12 h after injury showed ROC area under the curve (AUC) cut-scores of 0.92 and 0.77, respectively. In multivariate analysis, percent TNHV is an independent predictor of GOS 3-5, with an odds ratio of 1.460 per 10 percentage point increase, as is initial GCS score (OR=1.090). The binary version of the Marshall CT score was an independent predictor of 6-month outcome, whereas age was not. These results suggest that quantitative cerebral cortical CBF measured within the first 6 and 12 h after TBI predicts 6-month outcome, which may be useful in guiding patient care and identifying patients for randomized clinical trials. A larger multicenter randomized clinical trial is indicated.