Abstract
Deforestation is a major cause of biodiversity loss with a negative impact of deforestation on human health. This study explores at global scale whether the loss and gain of forest cover and the rise of oil palm plantations can promote outbreaks of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases. We examine the global trends between changes in forest cover in recent decades and epidemics of infectious diseases. We find that the increases in outbreaks of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases from 1990 to 2016 are linked with deforestation, mostly in tropical countries, and with reforestation, mostly in temperate countries. We also find that outbreaks are associated with the increase in areas of palm oil plantations. Our study gives new support for a link between global deforestation and outbreaks of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases but evidences that reforestation and plantations may also contribute to epidemics of infectious diseases. The results are discussed in light of the importance of forests for biodiversity, livelihoods and human health and the need to urgently build an international governance framework to ensure the preservation of forests and the ecosystem services they provide, including the regulation of diseases. We develop recommendations to scientists, public health officers and policymakers who should reconcile the need to preserve biodiversity while taking into account the health risks posed by lack or mismanagement of forests. Significance Statement: While deforestation is a major cause of biodiversity loss, few studies have investigated globally the impact of deforestation and land conversion to commercial plantations on human health. Our study gives new support for a link between global outbreaks of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases and either global deforestation or reforestation and commercial plantations. We conclude that is time to build an international governance framework to ensure the preservation of forests and the ecosystem services they provide, including the regulation of disease transmission.
Highlights
The COVID-19 pandemic has called to investigate the consequences of biodiversity loss for the emergence of zoonotic diseases [1,2,3,4]
Because of the time limitation of the datasets, analyses were narrowed to the period from 1990 to 2016 for disease outbreaks (GIDEON), share of forest cover and area of oil palm (FAOSTAT) by country
The above global trends resulted in significant increases in both zoonotic diseases outbreaks (Spearman Rho = 0.92, P < 0.00001, n = 27, Figure 2A) and vector-borne diseases outbreaks (Spearman Rho = 0.94, P < 0.00001, n = 27, Figure 2B) in relation with the decrease in forest cover
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic has called to investigate the consequences of biodiversity loss for the emergence of zoonotic diseases [1,2,3,4]. A first GAM was developed to investigate the number of outbreaks of zoonotic or vector-borne diseases as a function of forest cover, human population size, spatial distribution (using the country centroids) and time (year) using a negative binomial link function. This first model was: g(E(outbreaks of infectious diseases)) = f1(long, lat) + f2(forest cover, year) + f3(human population size, year) + b. A second GAM was developed to investigate the number of outbreaks of zoonotic or vector-borne diseases as a function of oil palm areas, human population size, spatial distribution (using the country centroids) and time (year) using a negative binomial link function. Maps were drawn using the package “rworldmap” [30]
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